Grey Rhinos and Black Swans: The Art of Prioritising.

 

"When ‘black swans’ meet grey rhinos’, the very nature of the habitat undergoes transformation." (The India Way: Dr. S. Jaishankar)

 

While skimming through Dr. S. Jaishankar’s book on India’s strategies for an uncertain world, I came across two terms: ‘black swan’ and ‘grey rhinos'. I had heard these words and guessed their meaning to be something like ‘unexpected’ and ‘obvious," respectively, by a literal interpretation. However, out of curiosity, I did a little more research using ChatGPT and came across two books on these words.

First is "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The book explores the impacts of unpredictable and unprecedented events, known as black swans. The basic argument of the book is that our understanding is limited to our individual experiences. As Europeans had never seen a black swan before their discovery of Australia, they assumed that black swans didn’t exist. The author goes on to explain the limitations of economic and statistical methods in predicting such events; however, I am not going to explain that all here.

The second book is titled "The Grey Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore" by Michele Wucker. As you might have guessed, this book talks about the highly probable events that we tend to ignore or overlook. As with rhinos, the grey rhino refers to events that are large, visible, and charging towards us, yet we fail to act on them or respond to them. We'll look at the reasons and frameworks for dealing with grey rhinos, but first I'll discuss a thesis that I've used to prioritize things and to explain things to friends. While I do not claim to have always adhered to these principles, nevertheless, they have helped me. Having found some insights about black swans and grey rhinos, I think I should try to formulate my thesis properly.

My thesis (if it can be called one) is based upon observing our day-to-day lives in which we always have a long list of tasks to complete, and yet often we find at the end of the day, that while we were doing something, little could be achieved. Not just about days; if we look at longer periods of time, we often tend to feel dejected by the gap between "what we did" and "what could have been done". Many a time I am reminded of the six years that have gone by since my graduation, yet nothing concrete is visible. Clearly, a lot of things could have been done better and differently.

So I try to differentiate between what is "important" and what is "urgent and immediate but not important."For example, important things for me are to prepare well for the exam, maintain a good daily routine, eat well, talk to family and meet friends, and so on. While urgent or immediate might be to attend a classmate’s birthday party. I am not arguing that you should avoid all social events that don’t add to our "important tasks", but we do need to understand the concept of "opportunity costs". Basically, the economic concept of ‘opportunity costs’ refers to the cost of the next alternative that must be given up in order to pursue a certain action.

So, the basic argument of the thesis is to observe and see that the seemingly urgent or immediate tasks don’t adversely impact "important goals." That would imply that if you have already studied for 8–10 hours a day, you can hang out with friends. However, if you are hanging out every day because the exam isn't there on the next day or because you are healthy enough, and so on, then you are compromising the ‘important’ for the sake of the "urgent." Now I'll try to connect (my undeveloped thesis) to the books we just discussed above.

We often do feel that we should have studied or slept on time instead of using social media. I have felt many times that attending some meetings should have been avoided. But social relations don't always allow you that liberty . There are friends who might feel disrespected by you saying no. I believe we should accept their criticism humbly if we have ignored them without a plausible reason like being preoccupied with something more important. However, I have seen my friends understand that prioritizing our own important tasks doesn’t amount to disrespect.

So, like gray rhinos, we tend to ignore important tasks for a variety of reasons. Michele Wucker gives five reasons, which I’ll describe here briefly:

1.  Cognitive biases: tendency to focus on short-term outcomes rather than long-term outcomes That’s why we called it "urgent" or "immediate" over important.

2.  Group-thinking -  when groups prioritize consensus over critical thinking, which frequently leads to the dismissal of dissenting opinions. This is evident in various economic policies.

3.  Complacency-  being overly comfortable in one's current position.

4.  Institutional inertia—maintaining the status quo

5.  Siloed thinking - occurs when we fail to plan holistically.

These sophisticated words mean what we simplified as "important" and "urgent."

To sum up, if we have prioritized the most essential, we are better prepared to deal with both black swans and gray rhinos. I'd like to connect it to another idea expressed beautifully in a couplet by Rahiman Das ji.

एकै साधे सब सधै, सब साधै सब जाय।

रहिमन मूलहिं सींचिबो, फूलै फलै अघाय॥

In simple words, it means that if we focus on one important thing at a time, the rest is taken care of. If we just look after the roots properly, the plant will bear flowers and fruits automatically. So I would like this one important thing to be our own selves. If we can take care of our own body and mind, discipline our day, and never fail to account for the faults and rectify them, most things can be dealt with in a better way. This would require us to identify the important and try to reconcile it with urgent if possible.

While you and I cannot reverse the time or revisit it in retrospect to rectify our responses to past events, we can certainly apply a few lessons so that we are rescued from roaring rhinos and are not blown away by black swans.

(If you have come to this last line, I would like to see your views about this write up, do comment.)

D Ram

Social existence in JNU.

In today’s The Hindu (dated March 22, 2023), I came across an article by two IIT Bombay alumni talking about the issue of discrimination on the campus. A recent case of an undergraduate student, who was a Dalit, ending his life is the context of a revived discussion on the caste-based discrimination in India’s premier educational institutes.

This reminded me of a discussion I had with a fellow classmate about the utility of studying social sciences in general and language courses in particular. Her question was about the contribution that one can make by studying literature and other subjects in the humanities. We talked at length about different aspects and dimensions of education, and I came up with various examples of how the study of the humanities makes our existence worthy of being called a ‘human existence.’

The authors of the article point out the creation of an atmosphere that segregates students into ‘us’ and ‘them' in a layered and continuous process that takes subtle, seemingly innocuous forms. Quoting Michael Sandel’s book The Tyranny of Merit, the authors argue that the discussion on discrimination should be predicated on the idea of merit, as it is the embedded idea of merit that gives license to discriminate. In this work, Sandel argues that hubris among elites and the politics of humiliation are a result of meritocracy.

I have been studying and staying at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) in Delhi for more than a year now. While my major is the Study of International Relations (MA-PISM), I have the liberty here to opt for any course across schools and centers as an optional. This not only presents a medium for knowing different subjects but also the interaction with the fellow classmates. I don’t know if such an arrangement is feasible in the technical subjects, but it certainly helps if we can talk to anyone from any course in our batch.

But the basis of social cohesion herein is not just the academics; it’s the environment where discrimination is strongly objected to and inclusivity is in the air. I don’t recall anyone here asking me about my caste or religion, nor did I ever ask. I have good friends from almost all courses, and they come from different regions, religions, ethnicities, and castes and have varying perspectives about the world. There are friends whose choice of partners is not shaped by the socially prescribed binary of male and female but rather by the conscious call of their hearts. We disagree strongly about various ideas, debate more often, and then share a cup of tea in one of the canteens or dhabas on campus.

Herein, I haven’t been judged for the clothes I wore, the lack of fluency in my language, or the broken screen of my mobile phone. There are friends who have been to many countries, and there are others who came out of their village only when they got admission into JNU, and I have good relations with most of them. There might be personal grudges among us, but rarely are they the result of socio-economic identity factors. While there are exceptions, the number of such exceptions can’t negate the existence of an environment of inclusivity.

There have been instances when we disagreed with our professors, even during discussions with foreign delegations from Europe, the USA, and Taiwan. We have questioned and cross-questioned even the dean of our school, and on no occasion were any of us discouraged for our disagreements. I have had interactions with the Vice-Chancellor, who also happens to be an alumni of JNU, and have always found her to be attentive to our concerns.

While there might be other perspectives and experiences of JNU, they may present a picture much different from what I have known in my limited experience. However, it is certain that JNU epitomizes a campus where the ideas of equality, dignity, and fraternity thrive well within spaces of learning. And it is in the interest of any nation and society to let such sanctuaries exist for the creation of a society that does not discard the value of justice in a blind race of machines.

Link to article- https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/discrimination-in-the-iits-is-something-to-write-about/article66646925.ece

D Ram